Thursday, October 6, 2011

October 6th

Closed out my 75% long and went 40% short at the close.  Hoping for a one day pull back enough so that it makes the trade worth it and then go long again until we test the 50 day.  If we go straight to the 50 day then I will go further short and average up.  Then risk off for a short pull back and then long again into December where I will continue to look for 1220-1250 (1230/35 being my target).  The 30 minute chart shows MACD is about to cross despite closing on the highs so I thought it was a shot.  Also, 1165 is the 23.6% retrace from 1370-1101 which makes for a logical short term pull back. 1187 is the 38.2% retrace if drawing to the 1074 low, so that is a fair target to consider as well if this market pops further from here. 


Weekly RSI and MFI have made bullish weekly divergences and RSI, MFI and MACD have all made  bullish daily divergences.  It's the weekly divergences that suggest the lows for the year are in.  Although, I still believe next year the US will fall into a recession and face much lower lows.  The 30 minute, daily and weekly charts are below.



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