Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Oct. 4th

Today was no shocker.  Man, if only I could trade etfs.  Oh well, I went from 50% long to 125% long as of today's close.  I hear a lot of numbers being thrown out there in terms of next level of resistance.  I will say it again and keep saying it until I am blue in the face, while you might get a small pullback at any given point in time, the more likely meaningful pullback will be we sentiment is extreme, and price meets a moving average and/or a Fibonacci level (ideally all at the same time).  Today the 50 day ema is 1192 and the 50 day sma is 1187.  It seems reasonable to keep an eye on a move toward the 1160-1165 area (23.6%) retrace level.  It would be particularly powerful if the market meets a Fibonacci level and the 50 day moving average in that same area.  Looking for the 50 day to take part or all of my long position off.

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