http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p83897172592&a=240861572&listNum=1
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&st=2007-11-01&en=2008-08-04&id=p15846033326&a=240861572&listNum=1
This is my first post so I will keep it short and sweet. I am getting ready for vacation and will let the charts speak mostly for themselves.
There are disturbing similarities between what is occurring today and the beginnings of the 2008 bear market. While the magnitude of the bear market might not be the same, it seems as if many things are repeating themselves. And what I am most interested in are the charts. Above there are two charts. The first is today. It is a three month charts that shows Fibonacci levels from both the bear market low of '09 to bull market top of 1370 and the most recent decline from 1370-1101. You should also notice the trend line (red) from last years 1010 summer low and a Fib Arc drawn from the 1370 high to the 1101 low. The right shoulder looks nearly identical to the '08 right shoulder formation. The drop to 1101 was similar in time and size as the early '08 drop and now the bounce seems to be quite similar. We are currently at a point where RSI is higher than it was at 1208 just a week or so back yet price is still lower than those levels. If we roll over prior to breaking the 1208 level then RSI will confirm a bearish formation. I would also keep an eye on the 50 SMA. The first failure in '08 came at the 50 day SMA and the second came at the 200 day as noted on the second chart.
Lastly, I will leave you with this. The Fib Arc, Trend line, H&S neckline, top of Ichimoku Cloud (weekly) (and possibly 200 SMA with the course it is on) all converge around EARLY OCTOBER. Can it be? I hope to bring much greater detail in future posts but have to run.
**note the second link ('08)...after the initial bounce to 1396, we sold off and bounced back to 1388. Lower price level but higher RSI.....could this be a repeat? Maybe.
