Deja Vu....

Ok, I had to post this since it seems nearly every comparison I have seen of the current time period is missing the MOST OBVIOUS of them all.  The first chart is the recent 3 months.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui...

The chart below is EARLY 2008. The chart is nearly identical and no one is paying attention.  Very surprising since it is so obvious.  This is one of the reasons I see a lower low, but if it follows this pattern we will hit the 1080-1090 Pivot and rally into year end.  I say that because after the H&S broke in early 2008 the 1270 low was followed by a 1257 lower low (only 13 points).  Everyone is expecting that if we break 1101 then 1050 or 1018 will be hit.  The contrarian in me says otherwise since everyone is looking for it.  I will got out on a limb and stick with 1080-1090 as a guess (although I will base investment decisions when we get there not on some guess I am making today).  If we continue to follow the pattern than a rally to the 200 day SMA by year end would make sense (as you did 2 months after making the 1257 low in March 08, 1440 high in May 08: by the way, 1420 was the 50% retrace and 144o was the high intraday high).  In fact I can see the market meeting the 200 day SMA at the 50% or 61.8% retrace (1236 or 1267 area) in December which, of course, would be two months after an October lower low.  Now, that will be the mother of all shorts.  The shorts that the bears have been enjoying thus far have been peanuts relative to what they might be given if that happens.

Hope you enjoy the charts.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui...