Friday, December 2, 2011

12-2-2011

Believe that the trend has turned up and for those that follow EW this is probably P3 UP....for those that have read my posts over the last several months, you know that I have traded this market on both sides.  For the record, since August 30th (I took control of my account in recent months) I am up a bit over 16% and ahead of the market by about 11%-12% over that time period.  Trading both sides of it.  I don't care about fundamentals and I don't care about opinions.  I care about the charts.  And they are suggesting higher prices after a short pullback.  Everyone wants to talk about the fundamentals and Europe but you can make the argument that Europe and the US will end up PRINTING, PRINTING and PRINTING more.  As a result, debt gets inflated away and profits and assets rise.  Not as much in REAL terms as currencies will be falling relative to others.  Nonetheless, in nominal terms there might be money to be made staying long.  I only present that scenario because for every bear case, there is a bull case.  I would rather follow the charts.

S&P 500 Bullish Readings:
39,1 Slow Stoch is back over 80
Above middle of Monthly BB
Above middle of Weekly BB
Monthly RSI at 53+
Weekly RSI over 50
Bullish Engulfing Monthly Candle
Bullish Engulfing Weekly Candle
VIX is elevated after two major spike, path likely: lower
*There are more I think but these are the ones that I can think of off the top of my head

S&P 500 Bearish Readings: notice they are all lagging indicators and the last to follow the above indicators
Monthly MACD still negative divergence
Weekly MACD still under 0 line
Still below H&S neckline 
Still below 200 day, 39 week and 10 month sma
Still inside the weekly Ichimoku cloud
*I believe the bearish indicators are lagging because trendlines and moving averages are by definition lagging indicators.  So, they are likely the last to fall.

***Went from 100% long to 50% long at the close.  Looking for 1220-1225 to get back long and stay long, probably up to the 130501320 area depending on when (if) we get there.

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5 comments:

  1. sammyDecember 2, 2011 at 4:04 PM

    have a good weekend

    http://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/2011/12/02/12-2-2011-update/

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousDecember 2, 2011 at 9:11 PM

    Thanks Val Doug from Danerics

    ReplyDelete
  3. JustinfoMay 17, 2013 at 8:26 PM

    Hello, Why Did you stop blogging? Really enjoyed your posts!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. valunvstrMay 18, 2013 at 2:48 PM

      I currently post on Elliot Wave Lives on. For professional reasons I cannot maintain a blog. You can catch me under valunvstr on that blog as I often post. I recently posted some longer thoughts on his Friday and Saturday blog. This has been a fun market to stay long as I;ve posted on his blog. No reason to expect anything but small pullbacks for the time being. Nothing to even trade around.

      Delete
  4. JustinfoMay 20, 2013 at 10:54 PM

    Thanks! I actually followed you here from Elliot wave lives on to learn more :) that was the first time I ever came across TRIX. You wouldn't happen to tweet would you?

    Any thoughts on a correction vs. shallow pull-backs?

    ReplyDelete

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